43 Percent Say Midterm Vote Is Meant to Oppose Trump, Poll Finds - Newsweek

A growing share of American voters say their vote in this year's midterm election is being driven by opposition to President Donald Trump, according to a poll from NBC News that was published on Sunday.

The survey found that 43 percent of registered voters view their congressional vote as a way to signal opposition to the president, the highest level recorded in NBC News polling conducted ahead of a midterm election in the last three decades. Meanwhile, 27 percent said their vote would show a signal of support to the president. In comparison, then-President Joe Biden faced a 35 percent "signal of opposition" ahead of the 2022 midterms and during Trump's first term, the president had 38 percent opposition, the survey showed.

The poll also displayed that economic concerns and dissatisfaction with the Iran war also appear to be weighing on voters, with 55 percent saying Trump's policies have hurt the economy and 57 percent saying they are less likely to support a candidate who is in favor of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

The Iran war has emerged as a political liability for the administration, with voters increasingly linking the conflict to higher gas prices and rising living costs.

The White House has argued that polling does not reflect the full impact of Trump's agenda. In a previous statement to Newsweek, White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said: "No other president in history has accomplished more for the American people than President Trump, who is working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more."

He added that Trump's agenda was still taking effect and that the administration had already made "historic progress" both domestically and internationally.

The NBC News poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters between September 11-15 via a mix of telephone interviews and an online survey sent via text message. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Newsweek reached out to the White House by email Sunday for comment.

According to the NBC News survey, Trump's approval rating stands at 41 percent among registered voters, a second-term low in the network's polling, while 56 percent disapprove of his job performance. The survey also found that 55 percent of voters believe Trump's policies have hurt the economy, up from 48 percent in March.

Despite those headwinds for Republicans, the race for Congress remains relatively competitive. According to the poll, Democrats hold a 50 percent to 45 percent advantage on the generic congressional ballot, a five-point lead that is smaller than the party's 12-point edge at a comparable point before the 2018 midterms when Democrats won control of the House during Trump's first term.

The poll also found growing concerns about the economy and inflation, long considered Republican strengths. NBC News reported that the GOP's traditional advantage on handling economic issues has largely disappeared as voters continue to cite rising costs as a top concern.

More than six in 10 voters surveyed said the recent Iran conflict was not worth its costs, reflecting broader dissatisfaction with the political and economic landscape heading into the election.

Republican pollster Bill McInturff, whose firm conducted the survey alongside Democratic firm Hart Research Associates, said the midterm environment presents a clash between unfavorable national political trends for Republicans and electoral maps that remain favorable to the GOP, particularly in Senate races.

“We have a classic battle between these numbers and the political geography in which this campaign will be decided,” he said. “And the Republicans are still standing because of the geography in which this election will be won or lost.”

Midterm elections are often viewed as a referendum on the sitting president and their party, and NBC News' poll suggests dissatisfaction with Trump could become a major motivating factor for voters this year.

Democrats' chances of taking control of both chambers of Congress in November have reached a record high on the prediction market Kalshi, as polling points to a favorable national environment for the party less than seven weeks before Election Day.

As of writing, the probability of a Democratic House and Senate is at 58 percent, exceeding the previous high of 52 percent in April.

A Democratic sweep would give the party control of congressional committees, legislative scheduling and oversight of the administration. Control of the Senate would also give Democrats power over the confirmation process for presidential nominees.

Prediction-market prices are not opinion polls. They reflect the prices at which participants buy and sell contracts tied to an outcome, rather than a representative survey of voters. The 58 percent figure indicates that traders regarded a Democratic sweep as the most likely outcome at that point, not that Democrats had secured an equivalent share of public support.

Polling nevertheless provides some support for the direction of the market.

An aggregation updated on September 17 placed Democrats on 49.3 percent and Republicans on 41.9 percent in the national generic congressional ballot, a Democratic lead of 7.4 percentage points.

Those figures describe the overall political climate rather than predict the result in individual House districts or Senate races.

Newsweek reached out to the Republican National Committee and Democratic National Committee by email Sunday for comment.

Democrats need a net gain of five seats to win the House, according to the September 17 aggregation. All 435 House seats are being contested, meaning even a relatively small movement in competitive districts could change control of the chamber.

The Senate presents a more difficult route. Republicans hold a 53-47 advantage, counting the two independents who caucus with Democrats. Democrats therefore need a net gain of four seats to take control. There are 35 Senate contests this year, including special elections in Florida and Ohio.

Several Republican-held seats have become competitive, giving Democrats possible pickup opportunities. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has shifted several races in favor of Democrats in recent months. Alaska and Texas were moved from "Lean Republican" to tossup in July and August, respectively. But Cook also shifted New Hampshire, where Democrats are defending an open seat, from "Lean Democratic" to tossup on Tuesday.

Recent polling in Iowa and Texas shows the opportunities and uncertainty facing Democrats in the battle for the Senate. A Co/efficient survey conducted September 14 to 16 found Republican U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson leading Democratic state Representative Josh Turek by 46 percent to 42 percent among 831 likely Iowa voters, with 9 percent undecided and a margin of error of 3.39 percentage points.

In Texas, an Emerson College Polling survey conducted September 12 to 14 put Democratic state Representative James Talarico narrowly ahead of Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton, 47 percent to 46 percent, within its 3-point credibility interval. A ReconMR poll conducted September 8 to 11 showed a wider Talarico advantage of 49 percent to 43 percent, although its margin of error was 4.3 percentage points for the 614 respondents who answered the core questions.

Those results are snapshots rather than guarantees, and differences in pollsters, samples and field dates make direct comparisons difficult. More importantly, there is no national Senate vote that determines control. Democrats must assemble enough victories across separate statewide contests while protecting the seats they already hold.

Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.

Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Steve Mollman and Anthony Murray.