10 days left: Monsoon almost over, India's rain deficit at 15%, recovery bleak
India’s 2026 southwest monsoon has entered its final stretch with the country’s rainfall deficit still standing at 15 per cent, leaving little time for the monsoon to make up the shortfall before its withdrawal.
According to the latest India Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall data for June 1 to September 20, India has received 699.7 mm of rainfall against the normal 822 mm, resulting in a 15 per cent deficit.
With the monsoon expected to begin withdrawing from large parts of northwest India over the next five to seven days, the window for a significant recovery is narrowing rapidly.
For Delhi-NCR, the 2026 monsoon is effectively nearing its end, with weather models suggesting limited prospects of meaningful rainfall for the remainder of September.
This leaves little scope for the national rainfall deficit to improve substantially from the region.
The situation, however, could be different over parts of north India.
Weather models indicate that Uttar Pradesh and Bihar could see their most significant spell of September rainfall between September 25 and 28. Such rainfall could provide some late-season relief to the two states, although its impact on the overall national deficit will depend on the intensity and geographical spread of the rains.
The latest IMD map shows large variations in rainfall across the country. Several central and eastern states have recorded rainfall close to normal, while parts of northwest and southern India remain in the deficient category.
Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Kerala are among the regions showing rainfall deficits in the latest assessment.
In contrast, several parts of central and eastern India have remained within the normal rainfall range.
The monsoon's withdrawal is now becoming the bigger factor.
Once the southwest monsoon retreats from a region, the possibility of widespread monsoon rainfall reduces sharply. Any late-season rainfall would therefore depend largely on individual weather systems, including low-pressure areas, disturbances and changes in atmospheric circulation.
The latest satellite imagery also shows widespread cloud activity over parts of central, eastern and southern India, but this does not necessarily translate into sustained rainfall across the country.
For India as a whole, the next 10 days could therefore be crucial. A few strong rainfall spells could reduce the deficit, but the approaching withdrawal means there is increasingly little time for the monsoon to erase the shortfall.
The 2026 monsoon, which began with a significant rainfall deficit during its early phase before recovering in July and August, is now heading towards its final phase with the country still 15 per cent below its long-period average.- EndsPublished By: Sibu Kumar TripathiPublished On: Sep 21, 2026 07:30 IST
